Evolent Health’s third quarter saw a sharp revenue decline year over year, and the market responded negatively to the results. Management attributed the softness to ongoing membership reductions in the government exchange and Medicare Advantage markets, as well as higher medical utilization, particularly in cardiology, among exchange populations. CEO Seth Blackley acknowledged the challenging industry environment and emphasized that while “pipeline growth and new contract wins are robust,” shifting membership trends and exchange volatility weighed on performance.
Is now the time to buy EVH? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Evolent Health (EVH) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $479.5 million vs analyst estimates of $467.3 million (22.8% year-on-year decline, 2.6% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.05 vs analyst expectations of $0.11 (52.5% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $38.96 million vs analyst estimates of $37.67 million (8.1% margin, 3.4% beat)
- Revenue Guidance for Q4 CY2025 is $467 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $472.9 million
- EBITDA guidance for the full year is $149 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $151.7 million
- Operating Margin: 0.2%, up from -2.6% in the same quarter last year
- Sales Volumes rose 5.2% year on year (2.5% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $496.6 million
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Evolent Health’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Kevin Caliendo (UBS): asked about margins for new contracts and whether 10% is a reasonable long-term target. CEO Seth Blackley confirmed the new contract structure supports this margin profile, prioritizing predictability over higher upside.
- Daniel Grosslight (Citi): inquired about the impact of exchange membership changes on 2026 EBITDA. Blackley and Johnson said the effect is hard to quantify due to variable cost structures and wide membership outcome ranges.
- John Stansel (JPMorgan): pressed for color on Medicare Advantage customer enrollment strategies. Johnson noted that if key partners gain share, this could offset broader market declines for Evolent’s business.
- Lucas Romanski (TD Cowen): asked about how shifts in exchange subsidies and membership acuity compare to Medicaid redetermination. Johnson explained contract protections and pricing adjustments are designed to absorb such shifts.
- Jessica Tassan (Piper Sandler): sought detail on exchange adversity and the bridge from 2025 to 2026 EBITDA, especially regarding AI initiatives and the Evolent Care Partners divestiture. Johnson outlined the moving pieces and reaffirmed the $20 million AI efficiency target, conditional on membership levels.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Over the coming quarters, StockStory analysts will focus on (1) the pace at which new Performance Suite contracts ramp and contribute to revenue, (2) the evolution of membership in exchange and Medicare Advantage markets as policy decisions play out, and (3) evidence that AI-driven cost efficiencies and process improvements are translating into improved margins. The company’s ability to manage fixed costs and respond to shifts in government program eligibility will also be important signposts.
Evolent Health currently trades at $4.57, down from $6 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
The Best Stocks for High-Quality Investors
If your portfolio success hinges on just 4 stocks, your wealth is built on fragile ground. You have a small window to secure high-quality assets before the market widens and these prices disappear.
Don’t wait for the next volatility shock. Check out our Top 6 Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 244% over the last five years (as of June 30, 2025).
Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.